The U.S. Census Bureau has released projections showing the U.S. Virgin Islands will shed more than two-fifths of its population over the next 74 years, driven by declining fertility and sustained outmigration.
According to figures released on Thursday, November 5, the territory's resident count will contract from 83,896 in 2026 to 49,331 by 2100, a loss of 34,565 people. The Census Bureau expects the population to dip to 82,139 by 2030, 76,430 by 2040 and 70,187 by 2050.
Two demographic forces are behind the projected contraction. The territory's fertility rate has fallen below what demographers call replacement level. In 2026, women in the USVI averaged 1.9 children, down from 2.5 in 2007, compared with the 2.1 children per woman threshold needed to sustain population without migration. The Census Bureau anticipates that deaths will begin outnumbering births as soon as 2027.
Migration patterns compound the problem. The territory's net migration rate stands at minus 5.4 per 1,000 residents, meaning more people are leaving than arriving. Census researchers attributed the sharp rise in departures between 2010 and 2020 to an oil-refinery closure, hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, and ongoing economic and structural difficulties.
Census Bureau statisticians Sophia Magalona and Rachel J. Bacon stated that the long-term decline is "driven by a combination of falling fertility and persistent outmigration." Their projection assumes net outmigration will gradually taper and cease entirely by 2100.
This represents the first update to the Census Bureau's International Database since 2017 for the USVI, American Samoa, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. All four territories are expected to be smaller at the century's close than they are in 2026.
The USVI has already experienced significant population loss in recent decades. The 2020 Census recorded 87,146 residents, down from 106,405 in 2010, a decline of 18.1 percent. St. Croix shed 19 percent of its population, St. Thomas 18.2 percent, and St. John 6.9 percent.
The territory's population is simultaneously aging. The median age has climbed to 48.5 years in 2026, compared with 45.9 years in 2020. Residents age 65 and older now comprise a larger share than those under 18.
The Census Bureau emphasizes that its 2100 projection rests on assumptions about future demographic shifts that may not materialize. The agency's methodology draws on censuses, surveys, administrative records and vital statistics to estimate births, deaths and migration flows, but the accuracy of such long-range forecasts is inherently limited by data quality and the unpredictability of future trends.
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