A cold front originating in New England and Atlantic Canada will alter Caribbean weather patterns this weekend, meteorologist Brian Shields said on Tuesday, bringing heavier rainfall, stronger winds and lower temperatures to much of the region.
The system, which extends through Bermuda and the Bahamas, will move southward as the week progresses, drawing moisture ahead of it. While early in the week conditions remain scattered, rainfall will intensify starting Thursday and reach peak levels Friday and Saturday across the northern Caribbean.
Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula including Cancun, Cozumel, Merida, and Campeche face the heaviest impact. The Cayman Islands and Jamaica may receive localized totals around 25 millimeters or slightly higher in the near term, with substantially heavier downpours arriving over the weekend as the main front moves through.
Temperatures will drop noticeably in the north. Florida is forecast to reach the 40s Fahrenheit across many areas, while mornings in the Bahamas will turn chilly. Daytime readings further south will settle near 25 degrees Celsius in Jamaica and in the low 20s Celsius in Cuba. Elevated terrain in Haiti and the Dominican Republic will experience a more pronounced cooling, with distinctly colder conditions by Sunday morning, though coastal lowlands may see only modest temperature changes.
Marine conditions will worsen as winds intensify. Seas are predicted to build to 2 to 2.5 meters, roughly 7 to 9 feet, in certain areas across the Gulf of Mexico, the southeastern United States, the Bahamas, and the central Caribbean, triggering marine advisories for shipping and coastal communities.
The front's reach will vary across the region. Trinidad and Tobago will remain in dry, unseasonably warm conditions with ongoing drought. Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada may see passing showers, with rain chances climbing to 50 percent by Wednesday. Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, and St. Maarten, currently drier, could benefit from rain arriving by weekend's end.
Shields noted this system is weaker than a major front that affected the region in February.
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